From $68B to $11B: Figma's lesson for private investors

Figma peaked at a $68 billion market cap days after its July IPO—a 250% first-day pop that marked the largest gain for a billion-dollar IPO in three decades. Seven months later, it trades at roughly $11 billion, down 84% from that high. The fundamentals? Still strong: 38% revenue growth, 131% net retention. For private market investors, this is a real-time lesson in how AI narrative risk can compress valuations faster than business performance changes. Here's our Thursday Deep Dive:

Musk just created a $1.25 trillion company

SpaceX acquired xAI yesterday in a deal that creates the world's most valuable private company at $1.25 trillion—and reshapes what investors will be buying in the coming IPO. Waymo closed its own mega-round at $16 billion and a $126 billion valuation. And Nvidia's Jensen Huang says his OpenAI investment will be "huge"—but not $100 billion.

SpaceX and xAI in merger talks ahead of IPO

SpaceX and xAI are reportedly in merger talks ahead of SpaceX's planned IPO—a potential combination that could create the most valuable private company in history. Meanwhile, Waabi raised $1B and partnered with Uber to deploy 25,000+ robotaxis, PaleBlueDot AI hit unicorn status, and Northwood Space landed both $100M in funding and a $50M Space Force contract.

What GameStop got wrong (and private markets got right)

Five years ago, Robinhood halted GameStop trades—and retail investors learned that market infrastructure could fail them at the worst possible moment. The lesson everyone took: retail wants access. The lesson they missed: retail will tolerate extraordinary friction if they believe in the trade. That same investor psychology is now driving record capital into private markets—with one critical difference. Here's our Thursday Deep Dive into the story:

Nvidia and Google back AI video unicorn Synthesia at $4B

Synthesia just doubled its valuation to $4B with Nvidia and Google's venture arms leading. Fei-Fei Li's World Labs is in talks at $5B—a 5x jump in a year. And a deeper look at Humans&’s mega-seed round. Applied AI is winning investor dollars.

Sequoia is betting on three AI rivals at once.

Meanwhile, Capital One's $5.15B acquisition of Brex signals fintech consolidation at steep discounts and Skild AI's $1.4B raise positions robotics for its "ChatGPT moment."

Is SpaceX a rocket company or an ISP? Yes.

SpaceX confirmed IPO plans for 2026 at a potential $1.5 trillion valuation. The company is famous for rockets—but roughly two-thirds of its revenue now comes from Starlink satellite internet. Understanding which business investors are actually buying may be the key to understanding the price tag.

What Anthropic's $350B round means for secondary pricing

Private Market Intelligence by Augment

The chip wars are heating up

Cerebras, Etched, Skild, a16z, xAI, JPM Health and more in this issue of Pulse.

The funding floodgates have opened

New year, new AI mega deals

Unwrapping the next IPO