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Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Private-company exposure without the shares

Oct 7, 2026

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6 min read

Private-company exposure without the shares

Ondo’s new private-market notes put an old financial idea onchain, with a different set of rights and risks.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Microsoft reportedly cut Claude spend by a third

Oct 6, 2026

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4 min read

Microsoft reportedly cut Claude spend by a third

Microsoft and Meta are reportedly cutting internal use of Anthropic’s Claude, with Microsoft reportedly cut projected internal Claude spend by more than a third. The SEC proposed an exam that would let people qualify as accredited investors without meeting an income or net-worth test. Oura postponed its $2.1 billion IPO last Tuesday, and SpaceX closed at its highest level since June.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
OpenAI’s $1.4T is a pre-money number

Oct 2, 2026

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4 min read

OpenAI’s $1.4T is a pre-money number

And more details underneath this week’s headlines.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Exit, Voice and the Continuation Fund

Oct 1, 2026

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7 min read

Exit, Voice and the Continuation Fund

Continuation funds give investors a way to sell and managers a way to keep holding. How much say do LPs have in the deal?

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Anthropic’s IPO Prospectus Shows a $42B Loss

Sep 29, 2026

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4 min read

Anthropic’s IPO Prospectus Shows a $42B Loss

A prospectus seen by Reuters shows Anthropic lost about $42 billion in 2025, roughly $34 billion of it an accounting charge, and reportedly points to a valuation above $2 trillion and a listing after the midterms. OpenAI cancelled its October model release after safety testing, and Florida asked a court to halt ChatGPT development. In M&A, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for $8.2 billion, and Monzo is reportedly in early talks with Nubank at £8 billion to £10 billion.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Bamboo Postpones Its $700M IPO

Sep 25, 2026

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7 min read

Bamboo Postpones Its $700M IPO

Bamboo Insurance postponed its $700 million IPO Tuesday night, citing market conditions. It is the second sizable deal pulled in less than a week, after Holtec. Nvidia committed $1 billion ahead of Nscale’s planned IPO; the AI cloud company’s prospectus disclosed earlier doubts about its ability to continue operating. Modal Labs and Baseten are reportedly in funding talks at roughly triple and double their earlier valuations, while TypeSafe is reportedly discussing a valuation more than 50 times its reported seed mark from a week ago. Anthropic signed an $11.6 billion cloud deal with Akamai and is reportedly seeking a Palantir-style voting structure ahead of a potential IPO. OpenAI also disclosed that an AI agent breached an Australian government health portal, an incident it reportedly discovered in August and reported to Canberra on September 10.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
What VCX’s premium says about private-company access to Anthropic

Sep 24, 2026

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6 min read

What VCX’s premium says about private-company access to Anthropic

Anthropic’s reported IPO delay comes as VCX’s premium shrinks, raising questions about what investors pay for access.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Anthropic reportedly moved its IPO to November

Sep 22, 2026

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6 min read

Anthropic reportedly moved its IPO to November

Anthropic has reportedly moved its planned listing from October to November so it can show investors third-quarter numbers first, a week after Sam Altman said OpenAI would not list in 2026. Elsewhere on the IPO calendar, Holtec postponed a $900 million deal the night before pricing, SoftBank’s SB Energy reportedly delayed a listing targeted for this month, Nscale filed publicly with 85% of its contracts tied to two customers, and Oura launched a deal of up to $2.2 billion that would leave the company with about $6 million after tax obligations. A company presentation seen by the FT puts OpenAI’s projected cash burn through 2030 at $278 billion.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Valor handed its LPs $8.5B of SpaceX stock

Sep 18, 2026

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10 min read

Valor handed its LPs $8.5B of SpaceX stock

Valor Equity Partners, one of SpaceX's largest shareholders, distributed about $8.5 billion of SpaceX stock to its limited partners this week rather than selling it. It was one of the first large publicly disclosed in-kind distributions following the June IPO. The same firm co-led Crusoe's $3.9 billion Series F on Thursday, tripling the data-center builder's valuation to $30.9 billion in ten months. The two moves bracketed the Federal Reserve's first rate increase since 2023, while Zipline, Shield AI, Spear Street Technology and Emulate were all reportedly raising at large step-ups. Cohere also signed its merger agreement with Aleph Alpha at a combined value of about $20 billion.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Four Days That Split Silicon Valley on AI

Sep 17, 2026

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9 min read

Four Days That Split Silicon Valley on AI

Amodei asked frontier AI labs to slow down. Then Musk, Altman, Trump, Beijing and the markets answered.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
OpenAI Won't IPO in 2026. SoftBank Falls 11%.

Sep 15, 2026

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8 min read

OpenAI Won't IPO in 2026. SoftBank Falls 11%.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Miro's 90% valuation reset

Sep 11, 2026

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9 min read

Miro's 90% valuation reset

Two companies last valued near the top of the 2021 market took different routes on Thursday. Bending Spoons agreed to buy Miro for $1.36 billion in enterprise value, well below its 2022 valuation, while Motive withdrew its S-1 after securing more than $1.3 billion from General Catalyst. Elsewhere, Harvey raised at $15.5 billion, the Pentagon was reportedly in talks to lend Fluidstack $5 billion, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.9% ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SambaNova and Forge's At-Par Median

Sep 10, 2026

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7 min read

SambaNova and Forge's At-Par Median

Forge's median secondary trade reached par in June for the first time since 2022. SambaNova helps explain how it got there.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Oura's S-1 reveals $1.09B in buybacks

Sep 4, 2026

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9 min read

Oura's S-1 reveals $1.09B in buybacks

Oura made its IPO filing public Thursday, disclosing $1.21 billion in revenue and $1.09 billion spent buying back shares from early investors.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
The price SpaceX's private market never set

Sep 3, 2026

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7 min read

The price SpaceX's private market never set

SpaceX's reported tender valuations only rose. Then public trading brought in sellers those controlled windows left out.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Anthropic reportedly signs $35B cloud deal

Sep 1, 2026

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4 min read

Anthropic reportedly signs $35B cloud deal

Anthropic reportedly signed a $35 billion cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda — five days after a reported $45 billion agreement with Nscale, and with its IPO prospectus reportedly expected to become public after Labor Day. OpenAI said its advertising business reached a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate about 200 days after ads launched in ChatGPT. And Shein priced its Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of about $26.5 billion, roughly a quarter of its 2022 private mark.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Nvidia's Reported $12.9B Hugging Face Deal

Aug 28, 2026

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8 min read

Nvidia's Reported $12.9B Hugging Face Deal

Nvidia has reportedly agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, choosing an outright acquisition after a year of license-and-hire deals. Anthropic is reportedly planning to let existing shareholders sell stock in its IPO while considering lockups longer than the standard 180 days. The company also discussed and then dropped a roughly $7 billion acquisition of chip startup MatX, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, SpaceX traded below its $135 IPO price for part of the week as lockup expirations added shares to the market.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
What Nvidia buys without buying the company

Aug 27, 2026

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6 min read

What Nvidia buys without buying the company

Groq, Poolside, and reportedly Perplexity: Nvidia keeps paying for technology and teams without buying the company.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Nvidia eyes Perplexity at $30B+

Aug 25, 2026

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4 min read

Nvidia eyes Perplexity at $30B+

Nvidia is reportedly in talks to invest in Perplexity at a valuation above $30 billion — its third reported private-AI move this month. Beneath the AI cluster, Forge's July data show the median secondary trade at a 7% discount to the company's last funding round, with buyers a minority of marketplace interest for the first time since late 2023. And Cerebras has fallen back to roughly its $185 May IPO price after a sharply higher first-day close.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
The Pulse — Friday, August 21, 2026

Aug 21, 2026

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7 min read

The Pulse — Friday, August 21, 2026

Anthropic reportedly expects its IPO to match or exceed SpaceX's record offering and could make its S-1 public by the end of August. California startups have raised about $366 billion this year, more than three times the total for the other 49 states combined. And much more.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
A Stock Token Can Be Three Different Things

Aug 20, 2026

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6 min read

A Stock Token Can Be Three Different Things

Nasdaq and Robinhood both use the language of tokenized stocks. Underneath it are three very different legal claims.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera

Pulse

Nvidia Guaranteed Up to $105B on OpenAI's Ohio Lease

Aug 18, 2026

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5 min read

Nvidia Guaranteed Up to $105B on OpenAI's Ohio Lease

Nvidia is backstopping $105B of OpenAI's rent

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Six Anthropic Backers Expect a $2T October Listing

Aug 14, 2026

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10 min read

Six Anthropic Backers Expect a $2T October Listing

Six Anthropic investors told the Financial Times they expect an October listing at $2 trillion or more, a figure the company itself has reportedly not set. The same day, Databricks closed $5 billion at $190 billion and announced no listing plans.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
What Airtable and Brex Actually Sold For

Aug 13, 2026

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6 min read

What Airtable and Brex Actually Sold For

Bending Spoons agreed to buy Airtable on August 4 at about $2.25 billion of equity value, roughly 81% below its 2021 Series F. Six days later, PitchBook priced every company that last raised in 2021 at an average 59.1% discount.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
OpenAI's $7B tender cleared at $852B

Aug 11, 2026

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6 min read

OpenAI's $7B tender cleared at $852B

OpenAI completed a roughly $7 billion employee tender on Monday at $852 billion, unchanged from its last primary round, and funded the purchase itself rather than bringing in outside investors. The OCC denied bunq a national bank charter in the same week that Erebor moved toward a raise at roughly $8 billion. And Sacra estimates Notion has grown 82% since the tender that set its current mark.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
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