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Wayve's tender and the 81% problem

Jul 9, 2026

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6 min read

Wayve's tender and the 81% problem

Wayve reportedly opened an $85 million tender at $8.5 billion. Twenty companies account for most of what trades at all.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 today: $4.3B in play

Jul 7, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 today: $4.3B in play

SpaceX finishes its first month public by joining the Nasdaq-100 this morning, with a reported ~$4.3 billion of index buying meeting a float of roughly 4%. OpenAI, a week after reports of a 2027 IPO timeline, has reportedly proposed handing 5% of its equity to a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. And Mercor reportedly doubled its gross revenue run rate in two months.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
OpenAI reportedly weighs 2027; $1T still the ask

Jun 29, 2026

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8 min read

OpenAI reportedly weighs 2027; $1T still the ask

OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward waiting until 2027 to list, with advisers pointing to recent tech-stock and SpaceX volatility — a timing question that keeps the most-wanted name in private hands longer. Capital kept moving toward "physical AI" and world models, with General Intuition's $320 million round and onsemi's $7 billion bid for Synaptics landing the same day. Underneath all of it, the memory layer tightened: Micron printed a record gross margin and Apple raised hardware prices, the AI buildout showing up on a consumer price tag. And SpaceX, the first Power 20 name with a public tape, gave back most of its post-IPO gains.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Synthetic SpaceX: trading a press release

Jun 25, 2026

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12 min read

Synthetic SpaceX: trading a press release

Five venues launched SpaceX perps days before the IPO, on institutional-looking terms. So who actually ends up holding them?

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 today: $4.3B in play

Jun 23, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 today: $4.3B in play

SpaceX finishes its first month public by joining the Nasdaq-100 this morning, with a reported ~$4.3 billion of index buying meeting a float of roughly 4%. OpenAI, a week after reports of a 2027 IPO timeline, has reportedly proposed handing 5% of its equity to a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. And Mercor reportedly doubled its gross revenue run rate in two months.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Synthetic SpaceX: trading a press release

Jun 18, 2026

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7 min read

Synthetic SpaceX: trading a press release

Five venues launched SpaceX perps days before the IPO, on institutional-looking terms. So who actually ends up holding them?

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Anthropic got 90 minutes. Top models went dark.

Jun 16, 2026

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5 min read

Anthropic got 90 minutes. Top models went dark.

Anthropic — which filed confidentially for an IPO two weeks ago — got 90 minutes' notice late last week before a U.S. export order pulled its two most capable models offline, and by Monday more than 80 cybersecurity leaders were publicly asking the White House to reverse it. Meanwhile SpaceX finished its debut at a different altitude: up another 19.6% Monday, a market value above $2.5 trillion, and a raise that grew to $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised the greenshoe.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Bezos raises $12B; Citi tokenizes private shares; SpaceX IPOs

Jun 12, 2026

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7 min read

Bezos raises $12B; Citi tokenizes private shares; SpaceX IPOs

SpaceX priced the largest IPO on record Thursday night and began trading on Nasdaq today — Thursday's Deep Dive, updated with the pricing, covers what its exit means for the private tape. Other highlights: Jeff Bezos' Prometheus closed a $12 billion Series B at a reported $41 billion valuation, Citigroup said it will offer tokenized shares of private companies to wealthy clients, and KKR launched a $10 billion AI-infrastructure financier. Capital moved at IPO scale all week. Most of it without a ticker.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SpaceX exits. Who inherits the tape?

Jun 11, 2026

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6 min read

SpaceX exits. Who inherits the tape?

SpaceX priced its record IPO at a reported $135 — and its exit sharpens a question for private-share holders. Secondaries hit a reported $106B in 2025, but the top 20 names were ~86% of it and just 70 new names traded all year. De-concentration is a forecast; concentration is a fact.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SpaceX's $135 mark meets the public tape

Jun 9, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX's $135 mark meets the public tape

SpaceX has been among the most-traded names on every secondary platform, is set to price Thursday and list Friday — which means the private market is about to lose its most visible and liquid private-company reference point, and the open question is where that demand goes. The timing isn't isolated: with OpenAI confirming its own confidential S-1 on June 8, all three names that anchored private-market demand are now in the IPO pipeline at once. Ramp's fresh $750M round at $44B resets the reference price for one of the other heavily traded private names, and on Forge, SpaceX's secondary mark is now sitting a few dollars under its $135 offer price — the cleanest test yet of whether a private mark survives contact with the public tape.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
SpaceX: a $1.77T ask, a $780B dissent

Jun 5, 2026

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8 min read

SpaceX: a $1.77T ask, a $780B dissent

SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 a share — a fixed price, not a range — implying a $1.77 trillion valuation, and Morningstar answered with a published fair-value estimate of $780 billion. Washington, meanwhile, has reportedly held preliminary talks about the federal government taking equity stakes in AI companies, an idea Sam Altman has pitched directly to the President. And Quantinuum delivered the new IPO pipeline's first finished data point: priced above range, closed roughly where it priced.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
Anthropic's S-1: Reconstructed From the Record*

Jun 4, 2026

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6 min read

Anthropic's S-1: Reconstructed From the Record*

Anthropic confirmed Monday it submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC — no share count, price range, or timeline set. The filing is sealed, but the public record around it is unusually deep, so today we reconstruct it: $4.8 billion in reported Q1 revenue and a reportedly projected first operating profit in Q2; a reported $1.25 billion-per-month xAI compute contract that surfaced in SpaceX's filing rather than Anthropic's; a $100 billion-plus AWS commitment; a reported ~$36 billion off-balance-sheet chip lease in syndication; and a governance structure — five financially disinterested trustees who ultimately elect a board majority — with no precedent at this scale. We lay out what's on the record and mark what only the filing can answer.

Paul Smalera
Paul Smalera
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