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SpaceX is finally going public. Here's what it actually means.

SpaceX is preparing to file its IPO prospectus this week or next — targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75B raise that would be the largest public offering in history. Meanwhile, Anthropic is eyeing a Q4 IPO of its own. And defense AI is having its own capital moment: Shield AI closed $2B at a $12.7B valuation. The IPO window is open.

Paul Smalera

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Mar 26, 2026

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9 min read

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Thoma Bravo — the world's largest software buyout firm — says the market has the AI-disruption story wrong. Software fundamentals are intact. The real divide is between easily-replaced point solutions and mission-critical, compliance-heavy systems that AI won't touch. They're buying. Private markets investors should pay attention.

Paul Smalera

Musk just announced the biggest chip factory in history. Investors should pay attention.

Mar 24, 2026

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8 min read

Musk just announced the biggest chip factory in history. Investors should pay attention.

Elon Musk unveiled Terafab on Saturday — a $20-25B joint chip fab between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI that targets a scale no private company has attempted in semiconductors. Meanwhile, the White House released its national AI policy framework pushing to preempt state AI laws, and Kalshi doubled its valuation to $22B in three months. A busy weekend for private markets.

Paul Smalera

Mar 20, 2026

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10 min read

OpenAI is eating the developer stack

OpenAI announced it will acquire Astral, the team behind Python's most-used developer tools, as part of an accelerating push to own the full software development lifecycle. Meanwhile, Microsoft is weighing legal action against OpenAI and Amazon over a $50B cloud deal it says violates its Azure exclusivity rights — a dispute that could reshape how Big Tech structures AI partnerships. And a new PitchBook analyst note asks the question no one in venture wants to answer: if SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all go public in 2026, is there enough capital left for anyone else?

Paul Smalera

When ”markets” and gambling mean the same thing

Mar 19, 2026

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9 min read

When ”markets” and gambling mean the same thing

Arizona filed the first-ever criminal charges against a prediction market company, accusing Kalshi of running an illegal gambling operation. Meanwhile, both Kalshi and rival Polymarket are in talks to raise at $20 billion valuations — roughly double where each sat just a few months ago. The collision of criminal exposure and record fundraising ambition tells you everything about where prediction markets are right now. Today's Deep Dive:

Paul Smalera

Jensen Huang just set the AI infrastructure agenda for the next two years

Mar 17, 2026

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7 min read

Jensen Huang just set the AI infrastructure agenda for the next two years

Nvidia kicked off GTC yesterday with Jensen Huang unveiling the Vera Rubin architecture and officially putting the Feynman GPU on the 2028 roadmap — the clearest view yet of how AI compute scales from here. Meanwhile, Meta is reportedly planning to cut 20% of its workforce as AI infrastructure costs balloon, and the Anthropic-Pentagon standoff continues to grind through the courts with no resolution in sight.

Paul Smalera

Vibe coding is the new AI infrastructure trade

Mar 13, 2026

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13 min read

Vibe coding is the new AI infrastructure trade

Cursor is reportedly in talks to raise billions at a valuation of up to $60 billion — more than doubling its $29.3B November 2025 mark. Lovable crossed $400M in ARR this week with just 146 employees. Replit raised $400M at $9B on a path to $1B ARR. In under 18 months, a category that barely existed has become one of the fastest-growing capital deployment patterns in private markets history. Meanwhile, Anthropic deepens its enterprise push via a potential Blackstone JV, and the Pentagon feud gets louder. Here's a bonus Friday Deep Dive about what this all means for private market investors.

Paul Smalera

The private market access trade is getting its first real stress test

Mar 12, 2026

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18 min read

The private market access trade is getting its first real stress test

Robinhood's new private markets fund raised $658 million and dropped 11% on day one. Fundrise had its own fund scheduled to list the same week — stronger portfolio, better fees — and quietly postponed. Two signals, one category. We dig into what the structure of these products gets right, what it gets wrong, and why the lockup these funds are trying to eliminate may actually be a feature. The Deep Dive:

Paul Smalera

Anthropic's $380B valuation has a new problem

Mar 10, 2026

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8 min read

Anthropic's $380B valuation has a new problem

Anthropic filed suit against the Pentagon over its "supply chain risk" designation — and the filing itself contains the most important number: the company's contracts are already being canceled, with hundreds of millions in revenue at risk. Meanwhile SoftBank's public stock is flashing warning signs about private AI valuations, and Nasdaq just announced the infrastructure that could eventually reshape how private securities trade.

Paul Smalera

SpaceX is filing for its IPO. The window is officially open.

Mar 6, 2026

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9 min read

SpaceX is filing for its IPO. The window is officially open.

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file confidential IPO papers with the SEC this month — targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and a June listing that could be the largest in history. Anduril is raising $4B at a $60B valuation as defense tech capital floods the market. OpenAI launched GPT-5.4 and hired IPO counsel, hitting $25B in annualized revenue. And Anthropic's Pentagon standoff is still live — the company is back in talks with the DoD even as the supply-chain risk designation stands.

Paul Smalera

The AI infrastructure boom has legs. Literally.

Mar 5, 2026

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12 min read

The AI infrastructure boom has legs. Literally.

Humanoid robotics is experiencing an AI-infrastructure-style capital surge — Neura Robotics raising ~€1B backed by Tether, Embo raising $100M+ for world models, and Arda raising $70M for manufacturing AI, all announced this week. Combined with Skild AI ($1.4B), Figure AI ($1B at $39B), and Apptronik ($935M at $5.3B) from recent months, investors have committed over $15 billion to humanoid and embodied AI startups since mid-2024. The question: is this the early innings of a trillion-dollar market, or the next overheated category? Let's Deep Dive and find out.

Paul Smalera

The fastest SaaS company ever just doubled again

Mar 3, 2026

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12 min read

The fastest SaaS company ever just doubled again

Cursor's revenue doubled to $2B ARR in just three months — the kind of trajectory that rewrites venture math. Reflection AI is reportedly seeking $2B+ at a $20B valuation just five months after its last raise. Meanwhile, Musk is cleaning house: X and xAI plan to repay $17.5B in debt ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. And MongoDB's 24% post-earnings plunge is the latest signal that even strong growth can't save you when forward guidance disappoints.

Paul Smalera

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SpaceX is finally going public. Here's what it actually means.

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Musk just announced the biggest chip factory in history. Investors should pay attention.

OpenAI is eating the developer stack

When ”markets” and gambling mean the same thing

Jensen Huang just set the AI infrastructure agenda for the next two years

Vibe coding is the new AI infrastructure trade

The private market access trade is getting its first real stress test

Anthropic's $380B valuation has a new problem

SpaceX is filing for its IPO. The window is officially open.

The AI infrastructure boom has legs. Literally.

The fastest SaaS company ever just doubled again

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